Roubini and Bremmer: The Perspective of a $200 Oil among a Russian/Chinese Alliance

Roubini and Bremmer: The Perspective of a $200 Oil among a Russian/Chinese Alliance
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In this Foreign Policy interview, Nouriel Roubini  and Ian Bremmer ride the counter-currents of the growing sirens songs claiming that the Global economy has solved its European and US equations.  The oil variable largely used by Iran to win sometime is also a major factor in the restraint of the US administration to start any military action against Tehran. The growing fear to see the Arab spring seeds reaching Russia and China after weakening probably their last Syrian ally in the region, is reinforcing tacit alliances.

Foreign Policy: “It’s a mixed bag these days. Europe appears to have arrested its fall into the abyss and the U.S. economy is finally looking up. But with a looming consensus that war with Iran is in the offing and Putin’s recent return to power in Russia, geopolitical chaos lurks around the corner. Foreign Policy once again turned to Nouriel Roubini — who’s always good for a little doom and gloom — and Ian Bremmer to make sense of the ticking time bombs. And they didn’t hold back.

When asked about the consequences of war in Iran, Roubini sees prolonged high oil prices “$170, $180, $200 a barrel” and warned of the knock-on consequences: “the last three major global recessions … were all caused by a geopolitical shock in the Middle East that led to spike in oil prices.” But Bremmer’s not buying all the war hype: “the Obama administration does not want to engage in military strikes against Iran — and they sure as hell are going to resist it, no matter what — before the elections.”

When it comes to metaphors, the pair of prognosticators didn’t disappoint: Roubini still sees a dark outcome in Europe — “a slow-motion train wreck” — while Bremmer sees the Chinese economy as a “very, very fast car” hurtling down a highway ... “the problem is that there’s a bend in the road coming up and there’s no steering.”

But the real surprise comes at the end of the conversation, where Roubini and Bremmer both worry about instability in Moscow and Beijing bringing the two nations together — but it might be less a case of keeping your friends close than keeping your enemies closer.”

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Photo Credits: Oil price By HaraWish / FlickR – Video Selected by Cap Falcon