The last report of the Center for Global Development (CGD) analyzes the evolution of global poverty through the prism of the climate change, conflict prevention and public health. Some stats provide a different perspective on raising regional power like China and India:
“The picture of global poverty is changing. The proportion of people in poverty
is greatest in sub-Saharan Africa (51% living on less than $1.25/day and 60% living on
less than $2/day (2005 figures)). The greatest number of poor people are still in China
and India who have recently transitioned out of the low income category.3 India alone
still has more poor people (456 million living on less than $1.25/day) than all of Sub-
Saharan Africa (with 387 million).4 Over the next 20 years, presuming India and China
continue to grow, about half of the world’s poor will be in Sub-Saharan Africa. The
remainder will be in countries which are technically middle income but where large
parts of the population remain in poverty, often because of social exclusion, caste, race,
disability or religion.”
Since 1990s, direct investment and workers’ remittances became the most important source of aid for developing countries, surpassing the secular Official External Aid (ODA).
The CGD paper is not meant to be predictive. “it is intended to identify major global trends
and raise issues which need to be resolved. Most developing countries will rely
primarily on their own resources and private capital flows to finance their development
and they will have more choices about funding sources than ever before. Nevertheless,
flows of development finance from richer countries to poorer ones will only grow in the
years ahead. In addition to financing poverty reduction, those flows will increasingly be
about addressing global public goods. These aid flows will move through a networked
web of national, international, private and public channels that will increasingly
compete and work in utilitarian partnerships that evolve depending on the issue at
Underneath, I selected three significant figures that speak for themsleves.
Note the distribution of the low income population, G8 countries aside. Combine this with the agricultural production forecasts by 2080 and note how large parts of the North and South America, Africa and Australia will see a 50% productivity drop. You will eventually get an interesting stress zone map forecast with different factors ranging from water shortages, demographic stress and coastal risk.
Figure 1: Percentage of Population living on less than $2 a day World Bank, World Development Report 2008, 2004 data Figure
Figure 3: Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in 2080
Figure 4: Stress Zones (DCDC Strategic Trends, 2007)
Climate changes and energy shortages will shape tomorrow’s world and we can already see the premises of this new rising world through the different new conflicts and social unrests.
Photo Credit: Flooded Street, Hanoi By Hanoi Mark / FlickR